Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Aug 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
August 27, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Aug 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 26 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 905 (S08E05) produced a C2 flare at 26/2007Z. New opposite flux emerged around the leading sunspot resulting in increased flare potential in this reverse polarity group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for further C-class flares from Region 905.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed ended the period near 330 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm conditions over the next three days. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 27 and 28 August, and produce unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm periods. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods are expected on 29 August. The x-ray signature of the C2 flare late today indicates a possible CME. The flare location was near center disk so a geomagnetic disturbance is possible on 29 August. The forecast will be updated as appropriate to reflect this change.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 26 Aug 076
  • Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 075/075/075
  • 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 000/002
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 003/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 010/012-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/25
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/30
  • Minor storm 20/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.