Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 26 Aug 2003
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today’s only C-class flare was
a C4/1n at 1559 UTC from Region 436 (N08W51). Region 436 is
declining slowly. New Region 445 (N03E24) showed gradual growth
during the past 24 hours but only produced a couple B-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active during
the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity continues to be enhanced in
response to a persistent high speed coronal hole wind stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
24 hours. Conditions should decline to predominantly unsettled
levels for the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 121
- Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 120/125/125
- 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 016/021
- Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 015/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 40/35/35
- Minor storm 25/20/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/35
- Minor storm 30/25/25
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
