Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the
period was a C4 flare at 25/1753Z from Region 1580 (N17E67). New
Region 1581 (N22E03) was numbered today. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions. There is a slight
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from active regions
rotating around the southeast limb.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 140
Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 145/145/150
90 Day Mean 25 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 002/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 004/005-004/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05