Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1109 (N22E27) was
classified as an Ehi group with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration
and produced a few B-class flares during the period. No new regions
were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. However, there is a slight chance for an M-class flare
from Region 1109.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels as a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream continued.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during days one and two (26-27 September).
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (28 September)
as a weak, recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes
geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 083
Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 083/083/082
90 Day Mean 25 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 009/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01