Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1026 (S30E15) produced
a C2 x-ray flare at 25/0102Z. This single-spot group has decreased
in area in the past 24 hours. Region 1027 (N24W08) remains a beta
group and has also decreased in both area and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled, with isolated active conditions, for day
one (26 September) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
becomes geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for
day two (27 September), with mostly quiet conditions returning for
day three (28 September).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 072
Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 072/072/070
90 Day Mean 25 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01