Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Sep 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 25 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled 26 – 27 September. On 28 September conditions are forecast to be unsettled to active as another coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 25 Sep 066
• Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 007/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 006/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 004/005-006/008-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/40
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/45
• Minor storm 10/10/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10