Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 1598 (S12E18)
produced a few low-level C-class events throughout the period, and
remains the most magnetically complex region on the disk. Although
Region 1598 continues to decay, a weak Delta magnetic configuration
was still observed in the region’s trailer spots. Region 1596
(N07W21) is a moderately sized region with some magnetic complexity,
but did not produce any flares during the period. The other regions
on the disk were either stable or decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(26 – 28 Oct) with Region 1598 the most likely source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, was predominately steady
around 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +/- 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (26 – 28 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M 30/20/10
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 130
Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 125/120/115
90 Day Mean 25 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05