Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1117 (N22W02)
produced several B-class flares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance of C-class flares from region 1117 or
Region 1115 (S30W64).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speeds observed at the ACE spacecraft remained at or above 600 km/s
for most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (26 October) due to
coronal hole effects. Days two and three (27 – 28 October) should be
at mostly quiet levels as the coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 086
Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 084/082/080
90 Day Mean 25 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 008/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01