Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1029 (N14W12) produced
several B-class events and a C1.5 flare at 25/0226Z. Region 1028
(N24W10) continues to decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance of an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet through the forecast period (26-28 October) due
to the coronal hole high speed stream rotating out of a geoeffective
position.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Oct 076
Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 25 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01