Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Oct 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
October 25, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Oct 25 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate. Region 484 (N04W28)
produced three M-class flares, the strongest being a M1.7/Sf at
25/0553 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep. At 24/0446 UTC,
Region 486 produced an M1.2/2n with an associated CME with a speed
of approximately 585 km/s. This CME did not appear to be
earth-directed. Both regions maintained their magnetic complexity
and grew slightly in size. Region 486 is now observed at 2200 mils.
A 10-degree filament erupted at S24W41 sometime between 24/2342 and
25/1417 UTC. New Region 487 at N13E72 was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce
M-class and isolated X-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Residual effects
from yesterday’s transient arrival continue to cause occasional
active conditions. Solar wind speed has decreased steadily to about
500 km/s, and Bz continues to maintain a consistent northward

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active throughout the period, with isolated
minor storm conditions possible on day one.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct

  • Class M 85/85/85
  • Class X 40/40/40
  • Proton 10/15/20
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 25 Oct 222
  • Predicted 26 Oct-28 Oct 210/210/200
  • 90 Day Mean 25 Oct 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct 028/034
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 020/025-015/020-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 30/30/30
  • Major-severe storm 15/10/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 40/40/40
  • Major-severe storm 25/20/20

SpaceRef staff editor.