Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Several small coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed but
none appear to have any Earth directed components. Two new regions
were numbered today, Region 1360 (N17E17) and Region 1361 (N19E59).
There are over 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk, however most
have remained stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (26 – 28 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next two days (26
– 27 November). An increase to quiet to unsettled with a chance for
active levels is expected on day three (28 November), as a coronal
hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 135
Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 130/135/140
90 Day Mean 25 Nov 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 004/007-006/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 04/07/21
Minor storm 00/01/05
Major-severe storm 00/00/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/17/18
Minor storm 14/20/33
Major-severe storm 05/10/32