Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 25 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Newly numbered Region 926 (S08E71) is a magnetic Hkx alpha sunspot group that rotated onto the visible disk during the period (old Region 921 S07 L=140). Several B-class flares were produced by this region earlier in the period. Region 926 remains too close to the limb to determine if a magnetic gamma structure exists.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels. Region 926 has the potential to produce isolated C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with a brief period of major storming at the higher latitudes between 25/1200 and 1500Z. The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to isolated active levels on 26 November. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 25 Nov 079
• Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 010/021
• Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 008/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 008/015-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/25/20
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 10/01/01