Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 25, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 25 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class activity
was observed in Regions 508 (S16W06) and 510 (S22E50). Region 508
continues to slowly decay, but still maintains moderate complexity.
Region 501 (N04W85), which produced several M-class flares early in
its rotation across the visible disk, is making a quiet exit around
the west limb. Region 507 (N09W14) maintains considerable size and
complexity, but was quiet again this period. A weak delta
configuration is still evident in this region. New Regions 511
(S14E24) and 512 (N06E31) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 507 and 508, though relatively quiet over the
past several days, still maintain potential for isolated M-class
activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. The disturbed periods are due to a moderate high speed
solar wind stream from a well positioned coronal hole. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes. The most disturbed periods are expected on 26
November due to high speed coronal hole flow. Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 27 and 28 November, with
occasional high latitude active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov

  • Class M 40/35/30
  • Class X 10/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 25 Nov 171
  • Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 170/160/160
  • 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 007/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 015/020-012/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/25
  • Minor storm 15/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/30
  • Minor storm 20/15/05
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.