Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Nov 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
November 25, 2002
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  An optically uncorrelated
long duration C1 event was observed at 25/1710 UTC.  A 33 degree
filament located near N10E27 disappeared  between 24/1847-1950 UTC
with an associated Type II radio sweep.  This event also produced a
partial halo CME which was observed in the LASCO imagery.  Region
198 (S18W48) is showing a slight decay both in sunspot count and
magnetic complexity.  No new regions were numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low. 
Region 198 has the potential for producing an isolated M-class

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high
levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled for the forecast period. 
Isolated active to minor storm conditions are possible late on 26
Nov through 27 Nov as a result of the CME observed on 24 Nov.

III.  Event Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 137
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov  140/145/150
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 172

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  008/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  010/012-015/020-015/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.