Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Nov 2002
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. An optically uncorrelated long duration C1 event was observed at 25/1710 UTC. A 33 degree filament located near N10E27 disappeared between 24/1847-1950 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep. This event also produced a partial halo CME which was observed in the LASCO imagery. Region 198 (S18W48) is showing a slight decay both in sunspot count and magnetic complexity. No new regions were numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 198 has the potential for producing an isolated M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high levels today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled for the forecast period. Isolated active to minor storm conditions are possible late on 26 Nov through 27 Nov as a result of the CME observed on 24 Nov. III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov Class M 40/40/40 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Nov 137 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 140/145/150 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 172 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 008/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 012/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 010/012-015/020-015/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/35/35 Minor storm 10/20/20 Major-severe storm 05/10/10 B. High Latitudes Active 35/40/35 Minor storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
