Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares
occurred. Two new active Regions, 1491 (N23W29) and 1492 (S13E65)
were numbered today. A few CMEs were observed during the period,
but all appear to be limb events and non-geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (26-28 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (26 May) due to a CME
from 22 May. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on days 2-3 (27-28
May).
III. Event Probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 May 117
Predicted 26 May-28 May 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 25 May 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 011/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/10