Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1072 (S15W36)
produced an impulsive B6/Sf flare at 25/1551Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low, with a slight chance of a C-class event from Region 1072.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (26 May) and partway through day two
(27 May). An increase to active levels is expected late on day two
(27 May) and partway through day three (28 May) due to the arrival
of the CME observed on 23 May. Predominately unsettled to active
levels with a chance for isolated minor storm levels are expected
later on day three (28 May) due to the arrival of the CME observed
on 24 May.
III. Event Probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 May 073
Predicted 26 May-28 May 075/076/078
90 Day Mean 25 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 005/002-010/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/50
Minor storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/40/50
Minor storm 01/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/10/15