Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 25, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 25 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Newly visible Region 582
(N16E72) rotated onto the disk, elevating activity levels. It
produced an M1/Sf at 24/2329UTC, and an M2/Sf at 0439UTC. The region
emerged on the invisible disk and arrives with hot plage and a
bright x-ray corona. Elsewhere, the six other visible regions were
mostly quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, due to additional M-level activity from Region 582.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE data show a slight
increase in solar wind radial speed and magnetic field strength
through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geostationary orbit was high for a short time.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled early, then slightly more
disturbed through the interval. A high speed stream may begin to
affect the field late on 28 March.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar

  • Class M 60/60/60
  • Class X 10/10/10
  • Proton 10/10/10
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • bserved 25 Mar 127
  • Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 130/135/130
  • 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 001/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 007/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 005/010-010/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/25
  • Minor storm 05/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.