Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Mar 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 25 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Newly visible Region 582
(N16E72) rotated onto the disk, elevating activity levels. It
produced an M1/Sf at 24/2329UTC, and an M2/Sf at 0439UTC. The region
emerged on the invisible disk and arrives with hot plage and a
bright x-ray corona. Elsewhere, the six other visible regions were
mostly quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, due to additional M-level activity from Region 582.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE data show a slight
increase in solar wind radial speed and magnetic field strength
through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geostationary orbit was high for a short time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled early, then slightly more
disturbed through the interval. A high speed stream may begin to
affect the field late on 28 March.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
- Class M 60/60/60
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 10/10/10
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
O
- bserved 25 Mar 127
- Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 130/135/130
- 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 001/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 007/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 005/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/25
- Minor storm 05/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
