Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low. New Region 1512
(S16E39, Dao/beta) emerged early on 25 June and gradually grew
during the remainder of the period. It produced a C1/Sf flare at
25/2059Z. A long-duration B7 flare occurred at 25/1848Z from a
region beyond the southeast limb. No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low during the period (26 – 28 June) with a chance for a C-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during the period (26 – 28 June) with a chance
for unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 089
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 090/095/100
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10