Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1236 (N15W76)
produced a B4 flare at 25/1020Z. Region 1236 decayed to an Hsx group
with an alpha magnetic configuration, Region 1240 (S20W26) decayed
to an Axx group with an alpha magnetic configuration, and Region
1241 (N18W19) decayed to a Bxo group with a beta magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period, with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Observations
of solar wind from the ACE spacecraft indicated speeds remained
elevated between 540 – 634 km/s, as the coronal hole speed stream
persists. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (26 –
28 June).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 094
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 094/092/092
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 006/007-006/007-006/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01