Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 June 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1082 (N26W77)
produced a B3 x-ray event at 25/1021Z. No other activity of note
was observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels with a slight chance for an isolated C-class
event on day one (26 June) as Region 1082 rotates around the limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a slight chance of
isolated minor storm periods all three days of the forecast period
(26 – 28 June). The increase in activity is due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 075
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 076/077/078
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01