Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Jun 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. No flares occurred
during the past 24 hours. Region 1023 (S23W14) has decayed to
spotless plage. Consequently the entire solar disk is now void of
spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind
observations indicated the presence of a high speed stream from a
coronal hole. Solar wind velocities were slowly declining towards
the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (26-27 June). An
increase to predominately unsettled levels with a chance for
isolated active periods is expected on the third day (28 June) in
response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 068
Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 25 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/25
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01