Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 25 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 897 (N06E75) produced six B-class flares in the last 24 hours. The largest was a B4 at 25/0505Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from Region 897.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first two days (26-27 June). A recurrent coronal hole is expected to rotate into geoeffective position on 28 June. Unsettled to active conditions, with possible minor storm periods, are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 25 Jun 074
• Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 005/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 007/008-005/008-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/25
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/30
• Minor storm 05/05/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10