Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Jun 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
June 25, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jun 25 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity increased to low levels today. A C1
x-ray flare occurred in Region 780 (S07W43) at 25/0346Z. This
region continues to decay as white light depicts a two spot AXX
alpha group. There were several disappearing filaments reported
today near the time SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts a full halo CME.
Much of CME signature is believed to be back-sided, although there
is some evidence that the filament activity contributed to the
overall CME signature leaving the potential for an Earth directed
component. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Showing weak
geoeffective consequences, the recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream has pushed the solar winds speeds to over 600 km/sec. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been
predominantly north throughout the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on 26 June due to the high speed
stream and again on 28 June due to the potential effects from the
front-sided component of the CME activity seen today.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 25 Jun 077
  • Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 080/080/085
  • 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 007/017
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 004/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 010/015-010/012-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/30
  • Minor storm 10/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/35
  • Minor storm 15/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.