Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A single low-level B-class
flare occurred. Region 1089 (S24W08) continued a gradual decrease in
area and spot number. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare
from Region 1089.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to briefly unsettled levels.
ACE solar wind readings indicated velocities gradually increased
from 333 to 483 km/s during the period. The enhanced velocities were
associated with a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (26 July).
Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with
a slight chance for minor storm levels on day 2 (27 July) as the
recurrent coronal hole high-speed wind stream intensifies. Activity
is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (28
July) as coronal hole effects gradually subside.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 085
Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 084/084/082
90 Day Mean 25 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 008/010-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/30/20
Minor storm 05/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01