Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Jul 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
July 25, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jul 25 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 791 (N13E22)
continues to be the only numbered spotted region on the visible
solar disk. Even though this group has been relatively quiet it
does show slight development in both area and spot count. The LASCO
imagery observed two full halo CME’s. The first was at 24/2230 UTC
and the second at 25/1106 UTC. Both of these were backside events
and not Earth directed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Region 791 could produce B-class flares with a chance for an
isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 25 Jul 084
  • Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 085/090/100
  • 90 Day Mean 25 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 003/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 005/006
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 005/005-008/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/30/30
  • Minor storm 05/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.