Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Jul 2003
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Jul 2003
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. The only event of the
period was a long duration C1 flare observed at 25/1719 UTC. This
event was not correlated optically, however, activity near the east
limb may be a possible source. All regions on the visible disk are
currently stable or showing decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
26 July. A recurrent coronal hole should influence activity on 27
and 28 July. Conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active
levels with isolated periods of minor storm conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 25 Jul 112
- Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 110/110/120
- 90 Day Mean 25 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 006/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 012/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 015/015-015/020-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/25/30
- Minor storm 05/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/35/45
- Minor storm 10/15/25
- Major-severe storm 05/05/15
