Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. A single
B1 flare was observed during the period from Region 1149 (N17W62).
Region 1149 showed a decrease in area and was classified as a
Dso-beta group. Region 1147 (N24W65) remained stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels, with isolated unsettled
periods at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels, with isolated unsettled periods at
high latitudes on day one (27 January). Quiet levels are expected on
days two and three (27-28 January).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 081
Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 080/079/078
90 Day Mean 25 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01