Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Jan 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity continues very low. No eruptive activity occurred as the disk is spotless once again today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity will be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet until late on January 26. A recurrent high-speed solar wind stream is then expected to usher in unsettled conditions for approximately 24 hours before quiet conditions return.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 25 Jan 070
• Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 001/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 005/005-010/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/20/10
• Minor storm 01/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/25/15
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01