Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Jan 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
January 25, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jan 25 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 727
(S09E25) underwent decay today and appears to be a simple beta
magnetic spot complex. With the exception of a few low level
B-class flares the solar disk and limb were fairly quiescent today.
Region 728 (S14E66) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. An isolated C-class flare is possible from
Region 727.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
periods may be observed in the nighttime sectors at the higher
latitudes throughout the reporting period.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 25 Jan 094
  • Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 095/095/100
  • 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 005/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 008/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 005/012-006/012-008/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/30
  • Minor storm 05/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.