Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Jan 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
January 25, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jan 25 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There were only two,
low-level B-class flares during the past 24 hours, both from Region
540 (S15W91) which rotated around the west limb today. The remainder
of the solar disk was stable and quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (26-28 January), with only a slight
chance for an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. An interval of relatively smooth rotation
of the interplanetary magnetic field from zero down to about -12 nT
started at about 24/1800 UTC and ended around 25/0300 UTC. The
magnetic signature was accompanied by enhanced density and declining
temperatures, all of which are suggestive of transient flow. The
geomagnetic field responded with minor storm level conditions
beginning around 0000 UTC and lasting through about 0900 UTC.
Geomagnetic activity has been gradually declining since 0900 UTC
through the end of the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled, with a chance for some isolated
active periods for the next two days (26-27 January). An increase to
unsettled to active is expected on the third day (28 January) in
response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 25 Jan 102
  • Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 100/100/105
  • 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 010/015
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 020/033
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 010/015-010/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan-28 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/35
  • Minor storm 15/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/35
  • Minor storm 20/20/25
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/15

SpaceRef staff editor.