Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Region
1163 (N17E60) produced a majority of the x-ray activity the past 24
hours with the largest event a C1 at 25/0544Z. As Region 1163
rotates onto the disk, it appears the long axis to be sharply tilted
in a NE to SW orientation with a complex inversion line. As a
result, the region is now classified as a beta-gamma. New Region
1164 (N28E76) rotated onto the disk as a large H-type spot and was
responsible for a C1 x-ray event at 25/1729Z. A 24 degree long
filament, centered near N34E40, was observed first lifting off the
disk at 25/0637Z visible in SDO/AIA 171 imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days (26 – 28 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (26 – 28
February).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 088
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 092/094/096
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01