Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 25 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant activity was observed over the past 24 hours. Region 944 (S08E37) is the only spotted region on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (26 – 28 February). Isolated active periods are possible on 26 February due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 25 Feb 077
• Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 078/079/080
• 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 002/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 008/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 010/015-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/10
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/10
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01