Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Feb 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
February 26, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 25 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods due to the
effects of a geoeffective high speed stream. Solar wind speed at
ACE has increased from approximately 450 km/s to 550 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 26 February. On 27 and 28
February, expect unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor
storm periods possible.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 25 Feb 078
  • Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 080/080/080
  • 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 004/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 008/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 010/015-012/020-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 15/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.