Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Feb 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 25 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. There have been several
minor C-class events with the most significant being a C8.0 from
Region 564 (N14W14) on the 25th at 1225 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 564, which will remain on the visible disk through 28
February, continues to have the potential for C-class activity, with
a very slight chance of an isolated M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb

• Class M 15/15/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 25 Feb 119
• Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 115/115/115
• 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 009/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 012/015-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01