Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Dec 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
December 26, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Dec 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 25 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Regions 931 (S08E55) and 932 (S07E35) were numbered today. Region 932 was responsible for several low level B-flares since its emergence. This region is classified as a beta magnetic group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 932.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 26 December. On 27 December, unsettled to active conditions are expected. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to return by 28 December.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 25 Dec 076
  • Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 075/075/075
  • 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 007/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 008/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 005/005-012/015-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/25/15
  • Minor storm 05/15/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/35/25
  • Minor storm 10/20/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/10/01

SpaceRef staff editor.