Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Dec 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 25 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was low. New Region 842 (S06E30) produced a C1 flare at 25/1014 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 26 December. On 27 and 28 December, unsettled to active conditions are expected with the possibility of minor storm periods due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 25 Dec 092
• Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 003/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 005/008-010/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec-28 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/25/25
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/30
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05