Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 Aug 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
August 25, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 25 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 661
(N06W86) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray flare
that occurred at 24/2112Z. This region underwent little change
today and has begun to exit the west solar limb. Region 662
(N14W67) produced a B5 x-ray flare that had an associated Type II
radio sweep with an estimated shock speed of 800 km/s. A CME was
observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery shortly following this event which
does not appear to be Earth directed. There was some sporadic
activity seen on the southeast solar limb today that is expected to
be associated with the return of old Region 655. No new regions
were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug

  • Class M 01/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 25 Aug 100
  • Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 095/090/090
  • 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 003/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 004/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 006/008-006/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.