Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 April 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Apr 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be very
low to low with a slight chance for a M-class flare from Region 1195
(S16W12) for the next 3 days (26-28 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet on days 1 and 2 (26-27 April), and quiet
to unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day 3 (28 April)
due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 112
Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 25 Apr 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01