Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 25 April 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Apr 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the last 24 hours and the disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next three days (26-28 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for day 1 (26 April) and quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods for day 2 (27 April) due to
the arrival of a weak CME observed on 22 April and a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
for day three (28 April) as the coronal hole high speed stream is
expected to persist.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 075
Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 076/076/076
90 Day Mean 25 Apr 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 007/008-010/012-007/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/15
Minor storm 05/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/40/20
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01