Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C1 flare occurred at
24/1542Z from new Region 1578 (N21E10). Another C1 flare occurred
at 24/1931Z from an unnumbered region currently rotating onto the
northeast limb. Another new region rotated onto the southeast limb
and was numbered Region 1579 (S09E70). No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed during the reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1-3 (25-27 September). On days
2-3 (26-27 September), the greater than 10 MeV proton probability
increases to a slight chance due to potential activity from active
regions rotating around the southeast limb.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M 15/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 137
Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 140/145/145
90 Day Mean 24 Sep 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 005/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05