Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels during the past
24 hours. Region 1109 (N22E41) produced several small B-class
events. Region 1109, an Eho spot group, increased in extent and
areal coverage and maintained a beta magnetic configuration. Region
1108 (S30W34) remained unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with C-class activity likely. A slight chance
for an M-class event exists from Region 1109.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels over the
past 24 hours due to the presence of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream. Solar wind velocities increased steadily over the
past 24 hours and ended the period near 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (25 September) due to
the continued presence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream. Quiet levels are expected on days two and three (26-27
September).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 083
Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 24 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/05/05
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01