Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Sep 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Sep 24 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels. Region 810 (N08W19) decayed slightly and decreased in magnetic complexity. Region 812 (S03E62) has maintained its size. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep

• Class M 15/15/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Sep 081
• Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 005/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 005/005-005/008-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01