Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Sep 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
September 24, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Sep 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
673 (S13W44) produced several minor B-class flares. The largest was
a B5 x-ray flare that occurred at 24/0245Z. This region exhibits a
simple beta class magnetic structure and is the only spotted active
region reported today. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. Region 673 has a slight chance of producing an
isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 24 Sep 089
  • Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 090/090/095
  • 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 004/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 004/008-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/15/15
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.