Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Sep 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
day was a C3/Sf at 24/1602 UTC in Region 119 (S13W76). This region
continues to decay slowly. The rate of growth in Region 132 (N19W28)
has decreased since yesterday. New Region 134 (N11E79) was numbered.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A low-level M-class flare is possible in Region 119 or
132.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 158
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep  150/145/140
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  000/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  005/007-005/007-005/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01