Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 October 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 1598 (S12E29) has
produced numerous C-class events throughout the period, and remains
the most magnetically complex region on the disk. Although slight
decay was noted in Region 1598’s trailer spots, it still maintains a
Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1596 (N08W08) is moderately
sized with some magnetic complexity, but did not produce any flares
during the period. The other regions either remained stable or were
decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with occasional M-class events, and a slight chance
for an isolated X-class event for the next three days (25 – 27 Oct)
with Region 1598 the most likely source.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, decreased slowly
throughout the period from around 370 km/s to around 340 km/s. The
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/- 2
nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (25 – 27 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 136
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05