Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1117 (N22E12)
produced several B-class flares during the past 24 hours. New Region
1119 (N22W22) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance of C-class flares from Region 1117 or
Region 1115 (S29W52) on days 1-3 (25 – 27 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was mostly unsettled to active due to the
effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speeds observed at the ACE spacecraft were at or above 600 km/s for
most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels on days one and two (25 –
26 October) due to coronal hole effects. Day three (27 October) will
see quiet to unsettled levels as the coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 082
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 084/082/080
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 016/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 012/015-010/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01