Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
Region 1029 (N14W01) is now a 13-spot bipolar sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. One period of unsettled
conditions was observed between 1800 – 2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (25 October) in
response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet
conditions are expected on days two and three (26 – 27 October).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 076
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01