Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. Both spotted regions 917 (S05W73) and 918 (S04W85) have undergone slow decay during the period. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed dropped down to approximately 400 km/s as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Oct 075
• Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 075/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 003/005-003/005-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 01/01/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 01/01/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05