Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. The largest event of the period was a C1 flare from Region
1356 (N15E16). A new sunspot group was numbered early in the period
in the northwest quadrant, Region 1359 (N16W52). A CME was observed
off the west limb in LASCO C2 imagery at 24/0125Z, but after careful
analysis, there appears to be no Earth directed components.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next
three days (25-27 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels with an
isolated period at minor storm levels observed at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(25-27 November).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 15/15/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 137
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 135/130/130
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 005/005-005/007-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/04/07
Minor storm 01/00/01
Major-severe storm 00/00/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 16/15/17
Minor storm 17/14/20
Major-severe storm 07/05/10