Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Nov 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar Activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The ACE spacecraft
detected the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region at
24/0600Z. Solar wind speeds began to increase at 24/0800Z and
reached about 450 km/sec by 24/1800Z. The elevated wind speed and
fluctuating Bt/Bz caused three unsettled periods, 24/1200-2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity on day one
(25 Nov) is expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for unsettled
periods due to persistence of current solar wind conditions.
Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled again on day two
(26 Nov) based on recurrence. Quiet conditions are expected to
return on day three (27 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 075
Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 075/075/073
90 Day Mean 24 Nov 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 007/008-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/15
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01